State University of New York Conversation #5 - Energy and Sustainibility Thursday, February 4, 2010 Stony Brook University Steve Koonin Presentation - Addressing America's Energy Challenges Slide 1 U.S. Department of Energy Addressing America's Energy Challenges Steven E. Koonin Under Secretary for Science US Department of Energy February, 2010 Slide2 America's energy challenges (I) Energy security Mostly about reliable and economic supply of liquid hydrocarbons for transport Urgency in geopolitics, $300B/yr import costs Goal: 3.5 M bbl/day reduction in crude use (~25% of daily transport use) Slide3 America's energy challenges (II) Greenhouse gas emissions Mostly about CO2from power and heat Urgency to avoid "lock in", demonstrate leadership, capture low-carbon markets Goal: ~20% reduction by 2020, 80% by 2050 Slide4 America's energy challenges (III) These goals require significant changes in energy sources, transmission, storage, use Identify, develop, demonstrate, and deploy cost-effective, material, and timely solutions and create jobs in the process Slide5 The energy security problem Transportation is powered almost exclusively by crude-derived liquid hydrocarbons Energy density (50 times better than the best battery), ease and economy of use, existing infrastructure, availability Slide6 (graphic) US liquid fuel use y = Millions bblsper day 0-25 x = Year 1970-2030 History and Projections by Biofuels, transportation, Industrial, Electric power, and residential and commercial Slide7 The energy security problem Transportation is powered almost exclusively by crude-derived liquid hydrocarbons The US imports a large fraction (~60%) of its crude supply Slide8 (graphic) Import fraction of US liquid fuels y = percent 0-80 x = Year 1990-2030 History and Projections History - Oil imports have grown Projections - Oil imports depend upon price Projections at low price, reference and high price Slide9 The energy security problem Transportation is powered almost exclusively by crude-derived liquid hydrocarbons The US imports a large fraction (~60%) of its crude supply Crude demand rising with global development "Easy" crude resources are increasingly concentrated geographically and politically Slide10 (graphic) Distribution of crude reserves Oil is a global market, OPEC is 40% of global supply, and reserves are geographically concentrated y = country x = billion barrels Middle East 746 North America 210 Africa 117 Central & South America 123 Eurasia 99 Asia 34 Europe 14 Source: Worldwide Look at Reserves and Production, Oil & Gas Journal, Vol. 105, No. 48 (December 22, 2008), pp. 20-23. Slide11 What can we do about transport? Encourage vehicle efficiency and conservation CAFE standards Vehicle downsizing, lightweighting, behavior Make the cost of driving evident? (full amortization, fuel/road tax, insurance,...) Slide12 (graphic) Average fuel economy of new light-duty vehicles y = MPG 0-40 x = year 1980-2030 History and Projections Projections Fuel efficiency depends upon fuel price and vehicle technology. Projections at high price, high technology, reference, low technology, low price Slide13 What can we do about transport? Encourage vehicle efficiency and conservation Encourage novel/alternative vehicle technologies at cost Improved internal combustion engines - HCCI, Exhaust Gas Recycling, Variable Valve Timing, selective cylinder deactivation, ... Gradual electrification paced by battery development - Hybrids, plug-in hybrids, battery vehicles DOE AVT and battery loan programs Slide14 What can we do about transport? Encourage vehicle efficiency and conservation Encourage novel/alternative vehicle technologies at cost Encourage (with consistency) a diverse portfolio of unconventional fuels Biofuels - Lignocellulose, feedstocks, better molecules, algae? What is the government doing? Renewable fuel standards; Bioenergycenters, integrated biorefineries Slide15 Challenges in stabilizing atmospheric CO2 The CO2concentration is rising at an accelerating rate; 550 ppm reached by 2050 Slide16 Challenges in stabilizing atmospheric CO2 The CO2concentration is rising at an accelerating rate; 550 ppm reached by 2050 Global emissions are growing at ~2-3% per year Slide17 (graphic) Growing Global CO2Emissions (1850-2004) y = Million Metric Tons of CO2 x = year 1850-2004 *from Fuel Burning, Cement Manufacture, and Gas Flaring Source: Marland et. Al. (2007) Global, Regional, and National CO2 Emissions. In Trends: A Compendium of Data on Global Change. CDIAC U.S.A. Slide18 Challenges in stabilizing atmospheric CO2 The CO2 concentration is rising at an accelerating rate; 550 ppm reached by 2050 Global emissions are growing at 2-3% per year The long CO2 lifetime means that the atmosphere accumulates the emissions - Drastic reductions in emissions are required implying large and major changes in energy production / use Slide19 (picture graphic) Half of the carbon we emit stays in the atmosphere for centuries Slide20 (graphic) The long CO2 lifetime is highly problematic Emissions y = Fossil fuel emissions (GtC/y)0-14 x = year 1950-2150 Projection Modest Reduction Concentration y = Atmospheric CO2 concentration (ppm)300-700 x = year 1950-2150 Modest emissions reductions will only delay, but not prevent, high concentrations Slide21 (graphic) Drastic emissions reductions are required to stabilize concentrations Emissions y = Fossil fuel emissions (GtC/y)0-14 x = year 1950-2150 Concentration y = Atmospheric CO2 concentration (ppm)300-700 x = year 1950-2150 Concentration Slide22 (graphic) CO2emissions and GDP per capita CO2 emissions and GDP per capita (1980-2005) y = CO2 emissions per capita (tCO2)0-25 x = GDP per Capital (PPP, constant 2005 international $) 0-50,000 USA, UK, France, Japan, China, Brazil, Ireland, Mexico, Malaysia, S. Korea, Greece, India, Australia, Russia, Thailand, Canada, Germany, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Venezuela, Nigeria, Algeria, Norway Per capita emissions must be quartered Today's global average Required for stabilization Source: DOE EIA database (2008); Russia data 1992-2005, Germany data 1991-2005 Slide23 (graphic) GHG emissions continue to grow Absent new policies, global energy-related CO2 emissions grow 39% by 2030 in EIA's reference case y = Billion metric tons 0.0-40.0 x = Year 2006-2030 (stacked bar chart)Non-OECD and OECD 2006 Non-OECD 53% and OECD 47% 2030 Non-OECD 64% and OECD 36% Source: EIA International Energy Outlook 2009, Reference Case Slide24 (graphic) US power in 2008 (4,112 billion kWh) (pie chart) Coal 48.5% Natural Gas 21.3% Nuclear 19.6% Conv. Hydropower 6.0% Renewal Energy 3.1% Petroleum 1.1% Other 0.4% U.S. Renewable Generation: 125 billion kWh Biomass 1.4% Geothermal 0.4% Solar 0.1% Wind 1.3% Renewables are <4% of US power Source: EIA Other includes: pumped storage, batteries, chemicals, hydrogen, pitch, purchased steam, sulfur, tire-derived fuels, and miscellaneous technologies. *Includes on- and off-grid capacity. U.S. Energy Background Information | July 2009 Slide25 (graphic) Categories of US energy consumption Buildings use about 40% of total US energy (Pie Chart) Industry 32% Buildings 40% Transportation 28% Buildings (breakout graphic) Residential 22% Commercial 18% Residential (breakout graphic) Computers 1% Cooking 5% Electronics 7% Wet Clean 5% Refrigeration 8% Cooling 12% Lights 11% Water Heat 12% Heating 31% Other 4% Commercial (breakout graphic) Cooking 2% Computers 3% Refrigeration 4% Office Equipment 6% Ventilation 6% Water Heat 7% Cooling 13% Heating 14% Lights 26% Other 13% Slide26 What do we do about heat and power? Conservation and efficiency Make the price of electricity evident Efficiency standards (appliances...) Regulatory incentives (pay utilities for conservation) Buildings, city design (DOE weatherization programs) Smart grid and storage enable renewables, encourage efficiency, provide reliability Slide27 (graphic) Per capita US electricity by state Residential Commercial Industrial y = Average per capita usage (kWh)0-18000 x = Average cost per KWh (cents) 0-25 Slide28 What do we do about heat and power? Conservation and efficiency Set a price on carbon emissions Sources favored by technology and economics are: Natural gas, On-shore wind, Small and medium hydropower, Nuclear fission, Carbon capture and storage (in demo soon) Portfolio standards Renewable or low-carbon Slide29 (graphic) US gas supply by source Unconventional gas sources will grow y = Tcf/yr 0-25 x = Year 1990-2030 History and Projections Unconventional Nonassociated offshore Alaska Associated-dissolved Net Imports Nonassociated conventional Slide30 (graphic) US renewable generation capacity(GW) Renewables are small, but wind is growing rapidly, y = GW 0-20 x = Year 1981-2007 Wind Biomass Waste Geothermal Slide31 (graphic / bar chart) Renewable electricity costs (2008) y = Cents per kWh* 0-90 x = (Type) (line) Coal/gas-fired ~ 3-6 cents Nuclear ~ 7 cents Wind 4-7 Geothermal 6-10 Boimass 5-12 CSP 12-18 PV 21-81 Wave Power 24-86 Tidal 18-35 Hydropower 2-5 Slide32 (graphic / stacked bar) Energy change is slow without deliberate acceleration US energy supply since 1850 y = % 0%-100% x = Year 1850-2000 Renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Hydro Coal Wood Source: EIA Slide33 (graphic / stacked bar) IT moves much faster than energy Sales of Personal Audio/Video since 2000 y = Annual Shipments (M Units) 0-100 x = Year 2000-2008 Flash MP3/MP4 HDD MP3/MP4 Pers CD Net MD Pers Tape (c) 2009 Futuresource Consulting Ltd Slide34 We must integrate diverse players with diverse roles Universities - Knowledge, people, education, credible voices National labs - Large facilities and programs, multidisciplinary RD&D For-profit sector - High-risk innovation, take technology to scale; Optimize under economics and regulation Government - Policies, precompetitive R&D Slide35 Because energy innovation is different Energy Frontier Research Centers [Underlying science] - Find solutions to fundamental scientific roadblocks to clean energy and energy security HUBS [Academia/government/industry partnerships] - Create sustained, tightly focused research centers with contributors from academia and industry REgainingour ENERGY Science and Engineering Edge(ReENERGYSE) proposal [Workforce training] - Energy scientists (technology and policy); Clean energy workers ARPA-E [High risk, transformational research]- Develop and deploy breakthrough energy technologies Coordination among many Federal/State agencies Slide36 (graphic) Energy consumption has increased with development Energy demand and GDP per capita (1980-2004) y = Primary Energy per capita (GJ) 0-400 x = GDP per capita (PPP, $2000)0-40,000 US Australia Russia Brazil China India S. Korea Mexico Ireland Greece France UK Japan Malaysia Source: UN and DOE EIA, Russia data 1992-2004 only Slide37 (graphic / stacked bar) Global population growing 4X in a century World population to 2050 - UN data y = millions 0-10,000 x = Year 1950-2050 Africa Asia Latin America and Caribbean Oceania Europe Northern America Slide38 What can universities do? Help society think through these complex systems issues - Time horizon, interdisciplinary expertise Educate students, public, policy makers - Existence and nature of these problem, meaningful solutions, workforce development Research (science, technology, policy, social) Get their own houses in order - Sustainable consumption, technology testbeds Slide39 Questions / Comments?